Every January, a lot of us decide to take a break from drinking – ghosting alcohol like a bad Tender date. Maybe it’s a health kick, maybe it’s guilt from a bonkers December, or maybe we’re just trying to prove we still have the energy and willpower to make it happen. Whatever the reason, Dry January has gone from a cute little trend to a full-blown ritual.
But, while everyone’s busy Instagramming their “mocktails,” something weird is going on. Economics 101 is doing a backflip – demand for alcohol plummets, but prices go up.
Part I: Alcohol Sales Fall Off a Cliff Every January
We drink for Christmas. We drink for New Year’s. We drink for surviving family dinners without committing felonies. But once the ball drops, so do alcohol sales—off a cliff.
For example, according to U.S. Census data, alcohol sales drop like a rock: down 28–35% every January compared to December.
How steep?
- Dec 2021: $18.2B → Jan 2022: $11.8B
- Dec 2022: $18.1B → Jan 2023: $12.3B
- Dec 2023: $17.4B → Jan 2024: $12.2B
- Dec 2024: $17.1B → Jan 2025: $12.3B
But let’s be clear: Dry January isn’t the only reason for this nosedive. There’s also financial detoxing, weight-loss promises, New Year’s resolutions, and the natural desire to not feel like a bloated gin-soaked elf by mid-January.
That said, Dry January is real, and its influence is growing — especially now that ~30% of adults participate, and many others cut back without telling Instagram about it.
So we built a layered, behaviorally driven model to estimate how much of that January sales plunge can be blamed directly on Dry January. (If you want the details on how we did it, take a peek at the bottom of the page.)
Spoiler: a lot. But not all.
Part II: Prices Go Up. Because of Course They Do.
Let’s play a game. Mass abandonment means demand plummets. So, what happens to prices?
If you said “they go down”, congratulations, you still remember your college econ class. Normally you’d be right. But this time you aren’t.
According to the Consumer Price Index for Alcoholic Beverages, January alcohol prices rose nearly 6% in 2023 alone.
That may not sound like a lot, but moving the entire U.S. beverage economy upward while sales are faceplanting? That’s some supply-and-demand defiance with Olympic-level form. Neat.
So what gives? Enter a little cultural tradition called Dry January — not the only factor, but a major co-conspirator.
Here’s how the combo of face plants happens:
- Holiday deals vanish, like your holiday cheer. Discounts die with the ball drop.
- Dry January kicks in. Roughly 1 in 3 adults stop drinking — not great for volume, but great for pricing power.
- Suppliers don’t blink. They charge more to the diehards who didn’t quit. That’s you, apparently.
- Inflation doesn’t care. Freight, glass, labor? Still expensive, even if you’re sipping soda water.
- January = price hike season. Quiet, sneaky, permanent. Like that gym membership you already forgot.
- Stubborn drinkers pay more. If you’re drinking through Dry Jan, you’re committed. Retailers know it (though not necessarily bars).
- No fire sales. February brings the Super Bowl — retailers can smell the comeback. So if you break Dry January on day 27, congrats: you’re paying premium relapse pricing.
In short, this is the month where the laws of supply and demand are outwitted by the laws of corporate obstinance.
Part III: Sober Is the New Black
However, while bars and their painful tips are crying into unsold kegs, the non-alcoholic beverage market is popping.
Gone are the days when “not drinking” meant sipping club soda while feeling excluded. Now, we’ve got:
- Non-alcoholic beers that taste almost like beer!
- Zero-proof gin that tastes absolutely nothing like gin!
- Mocktails that cost $18, and somehow still make you feel smug.
And sales? Oh, they’re frothy.
This isn’t a niche anymore. It’s a full-blown industry shift.
In 2023 alone:
- The total no-and low-alcohol category grew +29% year-over-year in volume
- Non-alcoholic (NA) beer & cider made up 81% of that category, growing +30%
- NA jumped +32%
- NA ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs) skyrocketed +36%
- NA wine grew +18%
- Low-alcohol beverages lagged behind at just +7%
As of 2023:
- NA beer made up 1.3% of total beer volume sold in the U.S., up from 0.8% in 2020
- Total U.S. retail sales of NA drinks hit $510 million, projected to top $1 billion by 2026
The category’s exploding with big players and premium indie brands, and entire shelves are now devoted to dry bar alternatives, and sober-curious consumers are happily fueling the boom.
Even kombucha and “functional beverages” are getting their moment. Kombucha alone saw a 15–20% lift in January sales, and the broader wellness beverage category (CBD sodas, fermented tonics, adaptogen elixirs) topped $2.5 billion in U.S. sales in 2023, up 12% from the year prior.
Even bars are getting wise. Instead of losing customers, they’re launching their mocktail menus with names like “The Unhungover” and “Ginless in Seattle,” and charging you wallet-emptying prices for the privilege of feeling morally superior.
It’s not lost revenue. It’s redistributed hedonism.
Part IV: The Ripple Effect
Dry January doesn’t just sober up your liver—it messes with everything:
- Bars hurt. Even though they are trying to keep up with the new reality, alcohol sales drop 10–20%, tips vanish, and bartenders serve mocktails with a forced smile.
- People feel great. Studies show better sleep, lower blood pressure, and less drinking months later. Annoying, but true.
- Fewer hangovers = more productivity. HR data shows 5–8% fewer sick days in January.
- DUIs drop. Some counties report 10–12% fewer arrests. Society breathes easier.
- Spending shifts. People save $300–$1,000 and blow it on kombucha, Peloton trials, or CBD gummy bears. Capitalism endures.
Conclusion: A Month That Moves Booze Markets
Dry January used to be a quiet self-help experiment. Now? It’s a fiscal curveball that hits like a shot of Everclear.
To review, every January:
- Alcohol sales faceplant by $5–6 billion
- Prices rise anyway—up to 6% year-over-year
- Non-alcoholic drink volumes jump 30%+
- Kombucha and “functional beverage” sales exceed $2.5 billion annually
- Consumers redirect hundreds of millions of dollars into mocktails, CBD fizz, and gym memberships
The booze industry now treats January like allergy season—survive it and pray for spring. Some drinkers return in February, clutching their glass like an emotional support animal. Others don’t. Either way, the consumption landscape is shifting—and brands are sprinting to keep up.
So yes, Dry January makes you sleep better, feel clearer, and possibly reconsider your relationship with alcohol.
Well done.
How We Measured the Economic Impact of Dry January
Each January, alcohol sales drop sharply — but how much of that is due to Dry January versus the usual post-holiday slump?
To find out, we built a model that separates Dry January’s influence from broader seasonal patterns.
We started with monthly U.S. alcohol sales data from the Census Bureau and FRED, which show consistent 28–35% drops from December to January.
Next, we used national survey data (from Morning Consult, CivicScience, and NCSolutions) to estimate how many adults participate in Dry January, either fully or partially.
We broke participation into two groups:
- Abstainers: fully dry for the month
- Reducers: cut back but don’t quit entirely
Then we used Google Trends to scale the participation rate — assuming more search interest means greater cultural adoption and stronger behavioral intensity.
Finally, we applied conservative economic multipliers to estimate each group’s impact on sales and summed the results.
The result? A behaviorally layered, search-calibrated estimate of how much Dry January contributes to the January sales plunge — in both percentage terms and billions of dollars.
Final Methodology – Full Formula Breakdown
1. Google Trends Scaler
We use a square root transformation to normalize the effect of Google Trends (Gₜ) on participation rates:
This ensures that search volume grows in influence early on, but diminishes as it saturates (e.g., going from 90 → 100 doesn’t double the impact vs. 10 → 20).
2. Adjusted Participation Rates
Adjusted Abstainer Rate:
Adjusted Reducer Rate:
3. Abstainer Effect
Where:
is the adjusted percent of adults fully abstaining
= 0.45
4. Reducer Effect
- is the adjusted percent of adults fully abstaining
- f= 0.45
5. Total Dry January Effect
This final value gives the percentage of January alcohol sales lost due to Dry January behaviors, including both full abstainers and partial reducers, adjusted by public engagement levels.
Variable Definitions
| Variable | Definition |
|---|---|
| Sd | Percent of U.S. adults who fully participate in Dry January (i.e., abstain from alcohol for the entire month). Based on survey data. |
| Rd | Percent of U.S. adults who reduce alcohol consumption during Dry January, but do not fully abstain. |
| Gt | Google Trends index for “Dry January” in January of year t (0–100 scale). Used as a proxy for cultural engagement. |
| G_{\text{scale}} | Scaled engagement factor calculated as \frac{\sqrt{G_t}}{\sqrt{100}}, which modulates participation intensity in the model. |
| S_d^{\text{adj}} | Adjusted participation rate for abstainers: S_d \times G_{\text{scale}}. Reflects how search trends amplify behavior. |
| R_d^{\text{adj}} | Adjusted participation rate for reducers: R_d \times G_{\text{scale}}. |
| \alpha_{\text{abstainer}} | Economic impact multiplier for abstainers — the % reduction in sales if 100% of adults abstained. |
| \alpha_{\text{reducer}} | Economic impact multiplier for reducers — a lower % reduction due to partial cutback behavior. |
| \text{Abstainer Effect}_t | Share of January alcohol sales loss due to abstainers in year t. |
| \text{Reducer Effect}_t | Share of January alcohol sales loss due to reducers in year t. |
| \text{Total Dry January Effect}_t | Combined sales impact from both abstainers and reducers in year t. |
Data Values
| Year | Total Jan Sales Loss ($B) | Jan Drop (%) | Dry January Sales Loss ($B) | Dry January Effect (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4.53 | 27.5% | 1.01 | 6.12% |
| 2021 | 5.11 | 29.0% | 1.25 | 7.11% |
| 2022 | 5.80 | 32.1% | 1.61 | 8.90% |
| 2023 | 5.29 | 30.3% | 1.35 | 7.73% |
| 2024 | 4.78 | 27.9% | 2.27 | 13.25% |
| 2025 | 4.78 | 27.9% | 2.47 | 14.39% |
Data Sources
U.S. Census Bureau: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Nondurable Goods – Alcoholic Beverage Sales (FRED Series ID: S4248SM144NCEN) – wholesale sales of beer, wine, and distilled alcohol .
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index – Alcoholic Beverages (All Urban Consumers, NSA) (FRED Series ID: CUUR0000SAF116) – price index for alcoholic drinks .
IWSR (Industry Research) via The IWSR and The Drinks Business: Data on U.S. no/low-alcohol market growth (2023) – e.g. +29% volume for non-alcoholic beverages , breakdown by category (+30% NA beer, etc.).
Numerator (Market Research): “Dry January’s Impact on Shopping Habits” (Jan 7, 2025) – consumer survey showing alcohol’s share of beverage spending dropping in Jan (45%→43% from 2022 to 2024) and 1 in 3 drinkers planning Dry Jan 2025 .
Hazelden Betty Ford Foundation: “Further Reflections on Dry January” (Jan 2024) – Q&A citing 15% of U.S. adults did Dry Jan and ~50% of young adults drank less afterwards .
BMJ Open (via Prevention.com): Study on Dry January effects (Published 2023) – found sustained reduction in alcohol consumption 6–8 months later .
IWSR: “What’s driving the growth of no-alcohol in the US?” (May 2024) – confirms 29% NA volume growth and details by category, with consumer behavior insights .
CNBC, Yahoo Finance: Consumer savings from Dry January
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: How dry is January?