Every January, many of us decide to take a break from drinking – ghosting alcohol like a bad Tender date. Maybe it’s a health kick, maybe it’s guilt from a bonkers December, or maybe we’re just trying to prove we still have the willpower to make it happen. Whatever the reason, Dry January has gone from a cute little trend to a full-blown ritual.
Stepping Up
Between COVID, costs, culture shifts, and better NA (non-alcoholic) drinks, it has both societal momentum and solid branding. By 2025, it’s not just acceptable—it’s almost expected.
If we dig a little deeper, we’ve got several gyrations happening all at once.
- Pandemic Hangover: First, everyone drank like the world was ending—because it kind of was. Then, surprise: hangovers got old, and Dry January offered a tidy little reset without the existential dread.
- Wellness Is the New Vice: Skipping booze isn’t just abstinence—it’s become part of a broader trend in health optimization, mindfulness, and intentional living as we attempt to hold on for dear life.
- Mocktails Don’t Suck Anymore: There was a time when “non-alcoholic cocktail” meant cranberry juice with a lime. Now, there’s a whole industry convincing you that cucumber brine and pea protein is a “refined sipping experience” to make you feel a little more hip.
- New Years Resolutions: After December excesses, January invites reflection and resolutions. Masses of goal-oriented drinkers give this a go and can actually make it happen, with a ready-made, socially acceptable detox.
- Growing Social Acceptance: It is promoted by media outlets, health organizations—even alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic lines.
- Gen Z Just Isn’t That Impressed: They already drink less and their souls are ingrained in health trends, and they don’t need a catchy hashtag to do it. Dry January isn’t a rebellion—it’s a Tuesday.
The Question: How It Seems to Break Econ 101
While everyone’s busy Instagramming their mocktails, something weird is going on. Economics 101 is doing a backflip. Oddly, at first glance the spike in year-to-year in demand for alcohol plummets…but prices go up?
Here’s our answer…it’s a little more complicated than that. (We’ll be repeating ourselves.)
Part I: Alcohol Sales Fall Off a Cliff Every January
We drink for Christmas. We drink for New Year’s. We drink for surviving family dinners without committing felonies. But once the ball drops, so do alcohol sales—off a cliff.
In fact, sales are down between 28–35% every January compared to December.
That said, January isn’t the only reason for this nosedive. As we said, there’s also financial detoxing, weight-loss promises, New Year’s resolutions, and the natural desire to not feel like a bloated gin-soaked animal by mid-January.
As we’ve seen, Dry January is real, and its influence is growing — especially now that ~30% of adults participate, and many others cut back without telling Facebook about it.
So, let’s build a layered, behaviorally driven model to estimate how much of that January sales plunge can be directly blamed on Dry January. (If you’re interested in how we did it, take a peek at the bottom of the page.)
The following shows the percent of total sales drop of alcohol year-to-year as well as our estimated portion of how much of that drop is due to Dry January.
What’s Shaping January Sales Drops…Drops
The Holiday Hangover Is Getting Softer. From 2020 to 2025, the total January sales drop has been gradually shrinking — from nearly 35% to under 28%. This suggests the seasonal crash is becoming more predictable as consumers, retailers, and pricing strategies evolve.
Dry January Is Eating Up More of the Decline. While total sales drops eased, Dry January’s contribution tripled: from just 4–5% of the decline in 2020 to over 14% in 2025. That means fewer people are drinking in January intentionally — as the fringe trend becomes a structural economic factor.
The Industry Is Adapting. Bars, brands, and retailers are smoothing promotions, pushing non-alcoholic offerings, and managing price perception better in January. These adaptations help soften the overall drop, even as participation in Dry January rises.
Cultural Behavior Is Stabilizing. In the early 2020s, Dry January growth was erratic. By 2024–2025, it’s mainstream and predictable. That makes January sales less volatile — but also more behavior-driven.
Part II: Prices Go Up. Because of Course They Do.
Let’s play a game. Mass alcohol abandonment means demand plummets. So, what happens to prices?
If you said “they go down”, congratulations, you still remember your college econ class. Normally you’d be right. But this time you aren’t.
In fact, total January alcohol prices rose nearly 6% in 2023 alone.
That may not sound like a lot, but that kind of increase in U.S. beverage inflation while sales are slacking? That’s some supply-and-demand defiance with Olympic-level form. Neat.
But remember, Dry January is not only a factor, but a major co-conspirator.
Here’s how the combo of face-plants happen:
- Holiday discounts die a quick death. In December, alcohol is everywhere, on sale, and festive. Come January, the party’s over—and so are the promos. You’re not getting 20% off that 6-pack when half the population is drinking herbal tea.
- Suppliers hold the line. They’re not slashing prices just because the nation is on a cleanse. Most producers know January is a dip—and they’ve priced that in. No panic. Just cold, margin-focused resolve.
- Inflation doesn’t care. Bottles, labels, freight, ingredients, taxes—it’s all more expensive year over year. Even if your demand disappears, your production costs don’t.
- New year, new markups. Many alcohol producers conveniently roll out annual price hikes in January. Think of it as a gym membership you didn’t notice renewing, except it’s your gin.
- The drinkers who remain don’t flinch. If you’re still drinking in January, you’re either committed or contrarian. Either way, you’re not likely to be price-sensitive. Retailers know this. They price accordingly.
TL;DR: In short, this is the month where the laws of supply and demand are outwitted by the laws of corporate obstinance.
Part III: Sober Is the New Black
While bars and their shrinking tips are crying into unsold kegs, the non-alcoholic beverage market is popping.
Gone are the days when “not drinking” meant sipping club soda while feeling excluded. Now, we’ve got:
- Non-alcoholic beers that taste almost like beer!
- Zero-proof gin that tastes absolutely nothing like gin!
- Mocktails that cost $18, and make you feel smug.
And sales? Oh, they’re frothy.
This isn’t a niche anymore. It’s a full-blown industry shift.
In 2023 alone:
- The total no-and low-alcohol category grew +29% year-over-year in volume
- Non-alcoholic (NA) beer & cider made up 81% of that category, growing +30%
- NA liquor jumped +32%
- NA ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs) skyrocketed +36%
- NA wine grew +18%
- Low-alcohol beverages lagged behind at just +7%
As of 2023:
- NA beer made up 1.3% of total beer volume sold in the U.S., up from 0.8% in 2020
- Total U.S. retail sales of NA drinks hit $510 million, projected to top $1 billion by 2026
The category’s exploding with big players and premium indie brands, and entire shelves are now devoted to dry bar alternatives, and sober-curious consumers are happily fueling the boom.
Even kombucha and “functional beverages” are getting their moment. Kombucha alone saw a 15–20% lift in January sales, and the broader wellness beverage category (CBD sodas, fermented tonics, adaptogen elixirs) topped $2.5 billion in U.S. sales in 2023, up 12% from the year prior.
Even bars are getting wise. In an attempt to curb losing customers, they’re launching their mocktail menus with names like “The Unhungover” and “Ginless in Seattle,” and charging you wallet-emptying prices for the privilege of feeling morally superior.
It’s not lost revenue. It’s redistributed hedonism.
The Enhanced Ripple Effect
Dry January doesn’t just sober up your liver and rattle liquor stores—it makes its way through the rest of your life. Reasons you can bribe yourself with to stay strong throughout the month.
Bars & Restaurants Bleed Dry. With fewer drinkers and no holiday buzz, revenue tanks. Many bars report 10–20% drops in alcohol sales beyond typical seasonal slumps. Tips shrink, and bartenders suffer through mixing mocktails called things like The Sober Sunset.
People Feel Annoyingly Great . Studies show participants sleep better, lower their blood pressure, and drink less for months afterward. Even BMJ confirms it. January is basically a state-sponsored liver vacation.
Work Gets… Functional. Fewer hangovers mean fewer “sick” days. Some HR data shows 5–8% drops in absenteeism compared to December. Karen from accounting has never been more alert. It’s terrifying.
DUIs and ER Visits Dip. Some jurisdictions report 10–12% fewer DUI arrests in January. ER visits linked to alcohol also tick down. Turns out less binge drinking = fewer disasters. Who knew?
People Save—and Spend Elsewhere. Going dry saves the average drinker $300–$1,000 in a month. According to Numerator, alcohol’s share of beverage spending drops ~4%, with a portion redirected to kombucha, gym memberships, or CBD dog treats. Capitalism adapts.
Conclusion: A Month That Moves Markets
To review, every January:
- Alcohol sales faceplant by $5–6 billion
- Prices rise anyway—up to 6% year-over-year
- Non-alcoholic drink volumes jump 30%+
- Kombucha and “functional beverage” sales exceed $2.5 billion annually
- Consumers redirect hundreds of millions of dollars into mocktails, CBD fizz, and gym memberships
The booze industry now treats January like allergy season—survive it and pray for spring. Some drinkers return in February, clutching their glass like an emotional support animal. Others don’t. Either way, the consumption landscape is shifting—and brands are sprinting to keep up.
So yes, Dry January makes you sleep better, feel clearer, and possibly reconsider your relationship with alcohol.
Let’s give ourselves a hand!
How We Measured the Impact of Dry January
Each January, alcohol sales drop sharply — but how much of that is due to Dry January versus the usual post-holiday slump?
To find out, we built a model that separates Dry January’s influence from broader seasonal patterns.
We started with monthly U.S. alcohol sales data from the Census Bureau and FRED, which show consistent 28–35% drops from December to January.
Next, we used national survey data (from Morning Consult, CivicScience, and NCSolutions) to estimate how many adults participate in Dry January, either fully or partially.
We broke participation into two groups:
- Abstainers: fully dry for the month
- Reducers: cut back but don’t quit entirely
Then we used Google Trends to scale the participation rate — assuming more search interest means greater cultural adoption and stronger behavioral intensity.
Finally, we applied conservative economic multipliers to estimate each group’s impact on sales and summed the results.
The result? A behaviorally layered, search-calibrated estimate of how much Dry January contributes to the January sales plunge — in both percentage terms and billions of dollars.
Final Methodology – Full Formula Breakdown
1. Google Trends Scaler
We use a square root transformation to normalize the effect of Google Trends (Gₜ) on participation rates:
This ensures that search volume grows in influence early on, but diminishes as it saturates (e.g., going from 90 → 100 doesn’t double the impact vs. 10 → 20).
2. Adjusted Participation Rates
Adjusted Abstainer Rate:
Adjusted Reducer Rate:
3. Abstainer Effect
Where:
is the adjusted percent of adults fully abstaining
= 0.45
4. Reducer Effect
- is the adjusted percent of adults fully abstaining
- f= 0.45
5. Total Dry January Effect
This final value gives the percentage of January alcohol sales lost due to Dry January behaviors, including both full abstainers and partial reducers, adjusted by public engagement levels.
Variable Definitions
| Variable | Definition |
|---|---|
| Sd | Percent of U.S. adults who fully participate in Dry January (i.e., abstain from alcohol for the entire month). Based on survey data. |
| Rd | Percent of U.S. adults who reduce alcohol consumption during Dry January, but do not fully abstain. |
| Gt | Google Trends index for “Dry January” in January of year t (0–100 scale). Used as a proxy for cultural engagement. |
 | Scaled engagement factor calculated as  , which modulates participation intensity in the model. |
 | Adjusted participation rate for abstainers:  . Reflects how search trends amplify behavior. |
 | Adjusted participation rate for reducers:  . |
 | Economic impact multiplier for abstainers — the % reduction in sales if 100% of adults abstained. |
 | Economic impact multiplier for reducers — a lower % reduction due to partial cutback behavior. |
 | Share of January alcohol sales loss due to abstainers in year t. |
 | Share of January alcohol sales loss due to reducers in year t. |
 | Combined sales impact from both abstainers and reducers in year t. |
Data Sources
U.S. Census Bureau: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Nondurable Goods – Alcoholic Beverage Sales (FRED Series ID: S4248SM144NCEN) – wholesale sales of beer, wine, and distilled alcohol .
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index – Alcoholic Beverages (All Urban Consumers, NSA) (FRED Series ID: CUUR0000SAF116) – price index for alcoholic drinks .
IWSR (Industry Research) via The IWSR and The Drinks Business: Data on U.S. no/low-alcohol market growth (2023) – e.g. +29% volume for non-alcoholic beverages , breakdown by category (+30% NA beer, etc.).
Numerator (Market Research): “Dry January’s Impact on Shopping Habits” (Jan 7, 2025) – consumer survey showing alcohol’s share of beverage spending dropping in Jan (45%→43% from 2022 to 2024) and 1 in 3 drinkers planning Dry Jan 2025 .
Hazelden Betty Ford Foundation: “Further Reflections on Dry January” (Jan 2024) – Q&A citing 15% of U.S. adults did Dry Jan and ~50% of young adults drank less afterwards .
BMJ Open (via Prevention.com): Study on Dry January effects (Published 2023) – found sustained reduction in alcohol consumption 6–8 months later .
IWSR: “What’s driving the growth of no-alcohol in the US?” (May 2024) – confirms 29% NA volume growth and details by category, with consumer behavior insights .
CNBC, Yahoo Finance: Consumer savings from Dry January
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: How dry is January?